Pat Cummins keeps Ashes door open, but admits it’s “wait and see”

Australia captain Pat Cummins has given a clear but careful update on his Ashes chances. He wants to play all five Tests against England starting November 21 in Perth, yet he accepts the final call will come closer to the series. This article explains his injury, what he and the coach have said, how Australia might plan around it, and why the timeline matters for the Ashes.

The update in simple words

Cummins is dealing with a lower-back stress issue. He has not bowled in a match since the West Indies Tests in June–July. He will miss Australia’s white-ball games in October to rest. His goal is to build back slowly and target the Ashes. He has said there are “no hard and fast plans,” and that it’s a “bit of a wait and see.” He still aims to be ready for every Test, if the back holds up.

What the coach thinks

Head coach Andrew McDonald is calm but realistic. He called the situation “not ideal,” which is honest for a captain with a back issue. But he also pushed back at any panic, saying it’s an overreaction to think Cummins won’t play. The theme is steady: manage the return, avoid risk, decide late.

Why this injury needs patience

Fast bowlers and backs are a tricky mix. Stress reactions need rest first, then a careful workload build-up. Cummins has handled this before. He missed time in 2018 with a stress fracture but, since then, has managed long stretches without major setbacks. At 32, he knows his body and believes he can reach Test-ready speed through centre-wicket sessions and nets, even if he skips domestic matches.

The Ashes calendar helps

This home Ashes has natural breathing space between Tests. That can help a fast bowler recover, reset workloads, and stay fresh across a long series. It’s one reason Cummins still thinks five Tests is possible, if progress is steady in October and early November.

Australia’s planning puzzle

If Cummins plays all five, Australia has its leader and best new-ball controller. If he needs a lighter load or a game off, Australia will lean on depth. Josh Hazlewood’s accuracy, Mitchell Starc’s strike power, and support from allrounders can spread the overs. With conditions in Perth and other venues favouring pace, the hosts still carry strong options even if they manage Cummins’ minutes.

Why Cummins matters so much

He is more than wickets. His tactical feel, calm decisions, and ability to bowl tough spells change games. In the 2021–22 home Ashes, he led the wicket charts and set the tone. Against England’s attacking style, his control at the top and in key passages can blunt momentum.

What to watch next

• Training progress in late October: signs of a return-to-bowling workload.

• Any centre-wicket or internal hit-outs: match-intensity overs without risking a full game.

• Final week before Perth: clarity on whether he targets all five or a staged approach.

Bottom line

Cummins wants the full Ashes. The medical plan is rest now, build up smartly, decide late. Australia will keep options ready, but if the back settles on time, expect the skipper to take the ball in Perth—and do everything he can to stay there.